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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 5

Las Vegas Raiders 21 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(:07) 2-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +3.32 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 5, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +2.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model