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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 30

New York Giants 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 27

What Actually Happened

(1:22) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass short left to 26-S.Barkley to LV 24 for 6 yards (25-T.Moehrig).

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.24 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 40, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.31 EP