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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 72

Las Vegas Raiders 27 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(12:44) 6-A.Cole punts 63 yards to NYG 9, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 23 for 14 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao, 80-J.Horsted).

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.47 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 72, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 30, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model