Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 71

New York Giants 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 27

(10:30) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass incomplete short left to 18-I.Hodgins (21-A.Robertson).

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

What Happened

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.69 EP
52% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 71, worth -3.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model