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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 64

Las Vegas Raiders 30 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(5:02) 6-A.Cole punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.49 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 64, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 22, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model