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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 59

New York Giants 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 30

What Actually Happened

(2:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass incomplete short middle to 31-M.Breida.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.99 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 59, worth -1.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model