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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 34

Las Vegas Raiders 30 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(:32) 35-Z.White up the middle to NYG 34 for no gain (45-C.Basham; 41-M.McFadden).

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
What Happened
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +1.66 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 34, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.75 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.37 EP