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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
New York Giants
4th & 1 at the 34
New York Giants 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7
What Actually Happened
(5:41) 8-D.Jones up the middle to LV 34 for no gain (98-M.Crosby).
The Three Options
GO
+1.70 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.55 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.90 EP
KICK
+0.57 EP
- 74% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
- 26% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT
-0.34 EP
- Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
