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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 16 at the 53

New York Giants 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(13:59) 6-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to LV 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.39 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 53, worth -3.12 EP
KICK -1.63 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model