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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 69

New England Patriots 0 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(11:24) 17-B.Baringer punts 52 yards to WAS 17, Center-49-J.Cardona. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 14 for -3 yards (30-M.Mapu).

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.09 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 27, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model