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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 51

Washington Commanders 10 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 5-T.Way punts 35 yards to NE 16, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 81-D.Douglas.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.78 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 51, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.61 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP