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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 53

New England Patriots 17 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(14:57) 17-B.Baringer punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.75 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 53, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.50 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP