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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 60

Washington Commanders 20 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(11:21) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to NE 7, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 81-D.Douglas to NE 5 for -2 yards (23-C.Rodriguez).

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.62 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 60, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.09 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 19, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP