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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 80

New England Patriots 17 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(9:33) 17-B.Baringer punts 60 yards to WAS 20, Center-49-J.Cardona. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 34 for 14 yards (41-B.Schooler).

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.38 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 80, worth -4.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 37, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model