Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 65

Washington Commanders 20 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(7:22) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to NE 18, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 81-D.Douglas to NE 21 for 3 yards (40-A.Armah). PENALTY on NE-41-B.Schooler, Face Mask, 9 yards, enforced at NE 18.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.92 EP
65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 65, worth -3.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model