Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 66

New England Patriots 17 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(5:15) 17-B.Baringer punts 56 yards to WAS 10, Center-49-J.Cardona. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 21 for 11 yards (86-P.Brown; 30-M.Mapu). NE-18-M.Slater was injured during the play. PENALTY on WAS-34-C.Holmes, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 10.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.67 EP
62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model