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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 49

New England Patriots 17 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(1:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 7-J.Smith-Schuster to WAS 43 for 6 yards (13-E.Forbes).

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
What Happened
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +1.62 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.73 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model