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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 79

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(14:05) 12-B.Gillikin punts 49 yards to ATL 30, Center-46-A.Brewer. 7-B.Robinson to ATL 38 for 8 yards (33-A.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +2.01 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 79, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 36, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model