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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 72

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Arizona Cardinals 15

What Actually Happened

(6:56) 13-B.Pinion punts 54 yards to ARI 18, Center-49-L.McCullough. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 25 for 7 yards (40-K.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.45 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 72, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 30, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model