Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 70

Arizona Cardinals 15 – Atlanta Falcons 17

(3:25) 12-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to ATL 16, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.77 EP
56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 70, worth -3.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model