Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 16 at the 90

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Arizona Cardinals 15

(1:27) 13-B.Pinion punts 60 yards to ARI 30, Center-49-L.McCullough. 83-G.Dortch to ATL 21 for 49 yards (37-D.Hellams, 40-K.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -3.44 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.86 EP
70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 90, worth -5.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model