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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 15

Carolina Panthers 7 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 4-E.Pineiro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.83 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 15, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model