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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 52

Chicago Bears 3 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(9:25) 16-T.Gill punts 43 yards to CAR 9, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-I.Smith-Marsette MUFFS catch, and recovers at CAR 9.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.73 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.53 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model