Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 97

Carolina Panthers 10 – Chicago Bears 3

(8:29) 10-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to CHI 42, Center-44-J.Jansen. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 47 for 5 yards (42-S.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO -4.12 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.81 EP
71% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 97, worth -6.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model