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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 18

Chicago Bears 3 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:10) 8-C.Santos 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.08 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model