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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 52

Carolina Panthers 10 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(1:19) 10-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to CHI 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.41 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 52, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -1.44 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 15, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP