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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 45

Carolina Panthers 10 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 10-J.Hekker punts 34 yards to CHI 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.30 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 45, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP