Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 19 at the 86

Chicago Bears 16 – Carolina Panthers 10

(1:00) 16-T.Gill punts 26 yards to CHI 40, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-48-P.Scales.

The Three Options

GO -3.19 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.62 EP
72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 86, worth -5.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model