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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 36

Carolina Panthers 10 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(13:06) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 82-T.Tremble to CHI 25 for 11 yards (6-K.Gordon). Penalty on CHI-33-J.Johnson, Defensive Holding, declined. Penalty on CHI-29-T.Stevenson, Defensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.85 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 36, worth -1.93 EP
KICK +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model