4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 20

Carolina Panthers 10 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(11:10) 4-E.Pineiro 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.89 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 20, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model