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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 44

Chicago Bears 16 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(7:17) 16-T.Gill punts 35 yards to CAR 9, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.41 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.70 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP