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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 54

Carolina Panthers 13 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 6-M.Sanders ran ob at CHI 41 for 13 yards (53-T.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.85 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 54, worth -1.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 16, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model