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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 41

Carolina Panthers 13 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(1:40) 4-E.Pineiro 59 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +2.72 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 41, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model