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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 78

Chicago Bears 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:05) 16-T.Gill punts 57 yards to CAR 21, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-I.Smith-Marsette for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.28 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 35, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model