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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 36

Chicago Bears 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:34) 8-C.Santos 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.55 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model