4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 58

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(14:53) 11-J.Stout punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.97 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 58, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 18, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model