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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 5

Cleveland Browns 6 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 7-D.Hopkins 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +2.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.23 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 5, worth +0.33 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model