Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 63

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

(13:01) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to BAL 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 21 for 4 yards (88-H.Bryant).

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.50 EP
71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 63, worth -3.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model