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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 55

Cleveland Browns 9 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 88-H.Bryant up the middle to CLE 47 for 2 yards (0-R.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.54 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 55, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 16, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model