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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 22

Cleveland Browns 30 – Baltimore Ravens 31

What Actually Happened

(:03) 7-D.Hopkins 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +1.64 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 22, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.02 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 32, worth -0.03 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model