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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Detroit Lions
4th & 1 at the 1
Detroit Lions 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 3
What Actually Happened
(13:14) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right [98-A.Johnson].
The Three Options
GO
+3.60 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.44 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.10 EP
KICK
+1.44 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT
-0.53 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
