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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 1

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – Detroit Lions 31

What Actually Happened

(11:33) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 1-Q.Johnston for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.85 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 1, worth +0.88 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model