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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 38

Los Angeles Chargers 31 – Detroit Lions 38

What Actually Happened

(3:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 13-K.Allen for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +2.89 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 38, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 47, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model