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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 26

Detroit Lions 38 – Los Angeles Chargers 38

What Actually Happened

(1:47) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 87-S.LaPorta to LAC 20 for 6 yards (3-D.James, 33-D.Leonard).

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
What Happened
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +3.03 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model