4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 28

Detroit Lions 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:57) (Shotgun) 5-D.Montgomery right guard to LAC 22 for 6 yards (20-D.Marlowe, 45-T.Tuipulotu).

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.19 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model