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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 67

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 10-B.Robbins punts 54 yards to HOU 13, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 3-N.Dell to HOU 20 for 7 yards (12-S.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 25, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP