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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 38

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:38) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 87-T.Hudson to HOU 35 for 3 yards (0-S.Griffin; 4-T.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +4.03 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 38, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.51 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model