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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 32

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(3:05) 2-E.McPherson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.88 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 42, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model