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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 46

Houston Texans 27 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(5:56) 11-C.Johnston punts 38 yards to CIN 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 16-T.Irwin.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.26 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model