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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 72

New Orleans Saints 3 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 39-L.Hedley punts 48 yards to MIN 24, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.83 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 72, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 30, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model